"Geostrategic Risk Premiums: Navigating Market Uncertainties Amid US Inflation Data and the Munich Security Conference"

This week, the focus will be on US inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's statements, but the most significant event will occur over the weekend: the Munich Security Conference, which will address geostrategic risk premiums.

The corporate earnings season remains active and continues to support stock markets, as the aggregate figures are positive. With approximately three-fifths of listed American companies having reported, the average EPS stands at +13.3%, nearly double the expected +7.5%. This strong performance has once again provided reliable support for the stock markets for another quarter. Historically, stock markets align with corporate results over the long term.

This week, the market's direction will largely depend on the US inflation data, scheduled for release on Wednesday at noon, and Powell's testimony before the Senate and Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. Inflation is expected to remain steady at +2.9%, while the underlying rate is projected to decrease slightly to +3.1% from +3.2%, potentially offering a modestly favorable outcome.

Powell will provide his perspective on the economy and discuss the Fed's monetary policy in what is traditionally known as the "Humphrey-Hawkins Speech." He is likely to remain cautious and hesitant to provide guidance on further rate cuts until more reliable data on the impact of Trump's policies, particularly tariffs, on inflation and growth becomes available. Today, Trump is expected to announce tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum imports, primarily targeting Canada, Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, and Vietnam. While this could dampen market sentiment slightly, the impact may be overshadowed by Trump's ambiguous comments about a conversation with Putin regarding the Ukraine conflict, which lack specifics and clarity.

The upcoming Munich Security Conference will have a direct influence on market sentiment next week, though its impact is difficult to predict. Any hints of a potential ceasefire could reduce the geostrategic risk premium and boost stock markets, while disappointment could have the opposite effect. Consequently, markets may see a withdrawal of positions and slight reversals towards the end of the week, though the outcome remains as unpredictable as Trump's statements. Despite potential early gains encouraged by Trump's ambiguous remarks, markets are likely to ease preventively by the end of the week.

Photo by Louis Gaudiau