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Monday Moday

The positive market tone observed last week is expected to strengthen, driven by the easing of US Core Inflation (+3.2% vs +3.3%) and solid results from American banks.

TODAY'S MARKET STATUS
New York is closed today due to a holiday, coinciding with Trump’s inauguration.
The market outlook remains undefined, with no immediate need to reduce positions as previously considered on Friday.
If Trump unexpectedly implements any known policies (tariffs, immigration, taxes, deregulation) with his usual dramatic flair, the market might view this favorably for the US GDP, especially if it includes tax cuts. This could positively influence Wall Street.
However, it is likely that he will focus on his more populist and less feasible measure: immigration, which will serve as political leverage without impacting the market significantly.
CORPORATE RESULTS AND INFLATION:
The earnings reports from American companies are becoming increasingly significant. Their ability to exceed expectations will likely continue to have a positive impact on the stock market.
No inflation reports are expected that could lead to a rise in bond yields, which would complicate the market situation.
If ECB advisers assert in forums like Davos that they will lower rates, this message is already well understood and is unlikely to affect market performance.

LOOKING AHEAD
Next week, the Magnificent Seven (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, and Tesla) will release their earnings.
The ECB is anticipated to lower rates, although the Fed is not expected to do the same.
These developments could lead to neutral or slightly positive market outcomes, but a negative impact seems improbable.
The market (both stocks and bonds) appears to be unlocking, with only unexpected events related to Trump, the ECB/Fed, or the Magnificent Seven potentially disrupting this trend.

PRACTICAL CONCLUSION
The market session is undefined but is consolidating a recent tone of improvement.
Notably, the T-Note yield is retreating to 4.60%, moving away from the threatening 5% mark, while the Bund stabilizes around 2.50%.
These yield levels are no longer considered alarming, and the overall market tone has improved swiftly. Anticipate positive developments ahead.
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